A Blog by Gutata

Based on the evolution of game companies, in only a few years, I don’t think it will be possible to start small web businesses. Games became mainstream sometime in the late 70s with the explosion of Atari. In the early to mid 90s, a plethora of unique games such as SimCity (simulation), Dune (real-time strategy), Myst (puzzle-based adventure), and Doom (first person shooter) were released. Many of them were developed by small, fledgling studios - SimCity by Maxis, Doom by id Software, Myst by Cyan Worlds, and Dune by Westwood Studios - or even individuals, as in the case of Duke Nukem by Ken Silverman. In only a few years, by the late 90s, games had to be extremely polished or cutting edge to be successful and could not be easily produced with teams of one to three people. This was quickened by the rapid evolution of 3D graphics hardware and the growing number of networked computers.

Web development became mainstream around the mid 90s, as e-commerce (e.g. Amazon.com) started to generate revenue, Netscape became the standard browser, and MP3s and email were gaining popularity. Assuming that the web industry is on a similar pace to the gaming industry, we can expect web applications to be very polished and difficult to produce by individuals or small teams by 2015. Games are probably more complex than web applications due to their many disciplines. So the actual date is probably around 2010. We’re already starting to see complex applications (e.g. Google Maps, Writely, Remember the Milk) that were normally produced as desktop applications.

This analysis is quite informal, but what it tells you is that if you haven’t broken into the web industry, it’s now or never. As web technologies evolve, you fall further and further behind the curve. It takes an above-average software engineer, who knows little to nothing about the web and web business, probably three months to release an application that can compete with the current cutting-edge applications. That learning curve is rapidly increasing. Some even say that now is not a good time to start a web business. But as usual, I’m with 37signals. I think now is a great time to start a web business, but this may be your last chance.